Wednesday, November 2, 2022

What happens next in Russia?

From The Economist:
questions that weigh heavily these days on the minds of the Russian elite, its bureaucrats and businessmen, as they observe the Ukrainian army advancing, talented people fleeing Russia and the West refusing to back down in the face of Vladimir Putin’s energy and nuclear blackmail. “There is a lot of swearing and angry talk in Moscow restaurants and kitchens,” one member of the elite says. “Everyone has realised that Putin has blundered and is losing.”
To fill this power vacuum, those who provide support to President Putin's regime may soon re-focus their energies (and armies) on fighting for power in a post-Putin world. 

This is analogous to what happens in a prisoners' dilemma: self interest (struggling for power in a post-Putin world) trumps group interest (supporting Putin's regime).

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