Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Fools and fanatics are certain of themselves; wiser people are full of doubts.

Bill Spitz, former Treasurer of Vanderbilt University, offers a sober perspective on the markets, (and channels Bertrand Russell). He draws three conclusions from the current crash
  1. Most people don’t learn from their mistakes. The bursting of the housing bubble was as predictable as the bursting of the Tulip bubble in 1637.
  2. The global economy is closely linked--who would have throught that a decline in US housing prices would cause all three Icelandic banks to fail.
  3. Anyone who depends upon short term borrowing is exposed to serious risk of not surviving--just ask Bearn Stearns or Wachovia.
So what does he recommend now?
Market tops occur when most people believe that good times will last forever. Two years ago, you should have been very skeptical of that commonly held view. In contrast, market bottoms occur when everyone believes that things will continue to get worse.

I don’t know where the bottom is. But, I do know that it is impossible to find an optimist anywhere, and there appear to be fabulous values in high quality stocks, corporate and municipal bonds, emerging market stocks, REIT’s, and closed end funds among other categories. So, my advice to you is: don’t panic, stick with your investment plan, and if you have any courage, stand up and take advantage of what I think will turn out to be historic opportunities.

1 comment:

  1. India will emerge as the next global hub for innovation, according to a study on “R&D Ecosystem in India” conducted by Evalueserve and released by the British High Commission and the Canadian High Commission in India.
    India targets to increase its R&D spend from less than 1 percent of GDP to 2 percent by 2012 under the 11th
    The Indian R&D ecosystem comprises various supporting infrastructure, government departments, research organisations, funding institutions and industry associations. The government is focusing on public-private partnerships, such as knowledge parks and incubator programmes, to promote commercialisation, transfer and diffusion of technology. Five-Year Plan. The move will catapult India to the league of developed nations that spend 2.5 percent of their GDP on R&D on an average