Overcoming Bias:
Fertility usually falls more rapidly from 4-7 down to ~2, then falls more slowly below 2. Rich nations now average ~1.4, with some as low as 0.8. If world fertility averaged 1.4 for 25-year generations after a peak of 10B, humanity would go extinct in 1660 years. If fertility instead averaged 1.0, that would take only 830 years. Most think extinction unlikely, and I agree with them, but such a risk shouldn’t be taken lightly.
...it seems that a shrinking world population would robustly lead to a shrinking world economy, and then innovation rapidly coming to a halt, which seems pretty scary. Given how naturally people resist change, it might be hard to restart a culture of innovation once it’s been long lost.
Less than 2.1 births/woman leads to a shrinking population. As a result, pay-as-you-go pensions (like Social Security and Medicare), will run out of money
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