Sunday, October 30, 2016

How information moves markets: Hilary futures crash

Iowa Electronic Prediction Markets: Hillary futures (blue) crashed from $0.90 to $0.60 while Trump futures climbed by an equal amount.

1 comment:

  1. How the stock markets perform, from August through October, have been a reliable predictor of who ends up in the White House. If the stocks rise in the three months, it favors the incumbent (Hillary Clinton). If stocks lose, the opposition party, is most likely to win. This is a very good sign for Donald Trump. The S&P has fallen 2 percent since August.

    Wall Street is closely following the latest October surprise news. The Clinton emails, cased the markets to sink briefly. Going back to World War 2, the S&P Performance for the 3 months before the election, had accurately predicted a challenger victory 86 percent of the time, when the stock market performance was negative.

    The negative reaction by the market could be an indication of the concerns of domination that a democratic nomination could bring. The market has been concerned about the possibility that the democrats could dominate the House of Representatives.
    Statistically, the stock market usually rallies, the week of an election. But this year, because of the recent events of the Hilary Clinton email scandal, the market is not rallying. This is because the leader in the polls, has had some recent bad news, that created a question of trust, with the voters.

    Domm, P. (2016, October 31). This stock market metric says the likely winner is...Trump. Retrieved from CNBC:
    Long, H. (2016, October 31). This stock market test points to a Trump win. Retrieved from CNN: