Wednesday, October 12, 2022

What do markets say about Democratic Chances in the midterm elections?

 

PredictIt.org trades contracts that payout $1 if the event occurs, so the prices can be interpreted as probabilities.  The graph above shows that the probability of a Democratic win has fallen from about 68% to 52%.

Below, the probability that Republican's will win the House has risen to about 81%.

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