Thursday, March 10, 2022

Incentives Matter - Ukrainian Edition

The Ukrainians are offering 5 million Russian rubles and full amnesty to soldiers if they, “put down their guns and voluntarily surrender to prison.” That's about $47,000 or two years of average Russian GDP per capita. That may be enough to sway a wavering Russian conscript. But Ivan may not trust it. Would they better trust it if it came from the US?

My colleague, Tim Wunder, says the US should back these offers on deficit reduction grounds alone.  For all 200,000 Russian troops thought to be involved, this would come to $9.4 Billion. The US House just approved $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine so it is cheaper than funding the war. Not all have to accept the offer for the invasion to collapse. The other thing about this strategy is that we can afford it while the Russians could not afford to reciprocate. Tim suggests an extra amount thrown in if you "bring a friend." Bring a whole platoon and get even more. Heck, work it like a multi-level marketing campaign.

Yes it would be cheaper, but moral too.

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