Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Forecasting the Future of Russia

Need a forecast of how the Ukrainian / Russian conflict will be resolved? Ask the prediction markets! Predictit has created a security that tries to get at this. The price of this instrument can be interpreted as the probability that Putin holds onto the Russian presidency through the end of 2022, as determined by the collective wisdom of people willing to stake money on their beliefs. It started at 84% on 25 Feb but is closer to 74% as of 28 Feb.

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