Thursday, February 13, 2020

Valentines Signals


Two trends in how Americans celebrate Valentines Day seem to be at odds with each other. The National Retail Federation reports a steady decline in adults who are participating (51% in 2019 versus 63% in 2009) but a steady increase in average spending ($162 in 2019 versus $103 in 2009).

This would be consistent with high quality suitors sending a stronger signal to their romantic partners so as to further differentiate themselves from low quality suitors. It seems to be working because the drop in participation suggests that low quality suitors are dropping out of this arms race.* This is consistent with the unhinging of the market for sex from the market for marriage.


*Poor Mrs. Ward will reap only a fraction of this amount. But the quality of her suitor was revealed so long ago that there is little value in additional signals.

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