Thursday, January 16, 2020

Prediction market: Who will be the Democratic Nominee?


 Each contract pays off $1 if the event occurs, e.g., Joe Biden wins the Democratic Nomination. The price of the contract can be interpreted as the probability of the event, Price=probability*$1.  For example, the Joe Biden contract is trading at $0.39 suggests a 39% that he will win the nomination. 

 These kinds of prediction markets can be used by firms to, e.g., predict future sales or profitability.

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