Will high oil prices lead to recession?

From Cato:

In 1983, the economist James Hamilton shocked the profession by showing that "all but one of the US recessions since world war two have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum".

Professor Hamilton's thesis was challenged in 1997 by Mr Bernanke, Mark Gertler and Mark Watson. It is difficult to isolate the effect of oil prices on recessions, they argued, because "a number of the most significant tightenings of US monetary policy have followed on the heels of major increases in the price of imported oil". They found that "an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy". ...

In 2007, by contrast, the Fed stopped chasing higher oil prices with higher interest rates. As a result, the US embarked on a fascinating new experiment in which oil prices and interest rates were moving in different directions for a change.