At intrade.com, one can buy and sell contracts that payoff $1 if a candidate receives the nomination. If the markets are "efficient," then the prices reflect the probability that the candidate will win.
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION PRICES
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 38.0 | |
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 28.0 | |
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 14.5 | |
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 12.0 | |
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 3.1 | |
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 2.0 |
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION PRICES
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA Barack Obama to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 74.0 | |
2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 24.0 | |
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS John Edwards to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 | 2.0 |
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