One of the beauties of becoming more educated is developing an ability to defend what otherwise appears to be totally stupid behavior. Think of those poor dopes standing outside in the searing heat or huddled under an inadequate shelter during a pelting rain sucking down a nicotine fix. How could anybody be dumb enough to engage in such behavior? I mean they tell you right on the product itself that it's likely to do damage.
Well, it's quite possible that these people have engaged in a rational decision to smoke. First of all, a lot of the warnings don't even apply. Why do I care that "Smoking By Pregnant Women May Result in Fetal Injury, Premature Birth, And Low Birth Weight"? I'm not going to be popping any kids out anytime soon. So I can already start to discount the negative effects. Second, it's not like I'm definitely going to get cancer; smoking only makes it more likely. Sounds like we need to do some sort of expected value calculation. Finally, we need to consider discount rates. Perhaps people who smoke simply have very high discount rates. They value the pleasure of smoking today very highly and heavily discount the negatives they will encounter in the future. How much fun am I really going to be having during that 89th, 90th, and 91st year of my life that I might gain from quitting? Compare that to how cool and relaxed I feel today with that smoke delicately tickling my alveoli.
Apparently, government is catching on to the fact that warnings like the one above may not be as effective as they had hoped. In the United Kingdom, you can get a nice picture of a diseased lung (BBC story) with your pack of smokes. The Netherlands has another approach to affecting men's discount rates. They warn that "Roken veroorzaakt impotentie" (Smoking causes impotence).
It's been observed that a quirk of human nature makes low IQ people WANT to be deceived. That fact makes the Tobacco War possible.
ReplyDeleteAnyone with a three digit IQ either knows antitobacco is an exercise in junk science and political corruption or is on their payroll.
I tend to agree with the first commenter. I myself smoke, though I've never been addicted to it and only smoke once or twice a week. There are weeks where I don't smoke at all.
ReplyDeleteI know, it sounds like hokey, but its true. I'm a firm believer that the intentions (not the incentive) of engaging in an action very much determines the consequences of that action.
In other words, I smoke for the flavor of the tobacco, not for any chemical sensation I receive. And it was a rational decision that I actually made when I was 18. I didn't smoke until then, and when I decided, it truly was a willed decision.
Perhaps I'm an out-lier, but so I am in the rest of my life. Everything in moderation.