How the Trump Whale made money betting on prediction markets

WSJ:

Polymarket’s remarkable liquidity explains Théo, the Polymarket whale [who made $85 million]. Théo behaved as one would expect of a smart trader: Once he had conviction, he sized the trade aggressively. He built his positions discreetly, with a variety of wallets and with small-sized buys, to avoid causing a run-up in price. This is exactly the opposite of what one would expect if, as much of the media and BlueAnon claimed, he was throwing away dozens of millions to influence the election.

More important, Théo did his own research. Rather than rely on polls, he theorized that there was a strong “shy Trumper” effect. That is, he believed that Trump supporters were both less likely to talk to pollsters and less likely to tell pollsters that they would vote for the former president. As he told The Wall Street Journal in an email, he commissioned his own surveys in which respondents were asked who they thought their neighbors would vote for. The results “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!”

Not only did Théo bet that Trump would win the Electoral College. He also bet that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that was the minority position even on Polymarket—and that Trump would sweep six of seven swing states, including the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.