Bubble-ologist Robert Schiller developed the CAPE [Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio] as a measure of the long-term value of a stock:. The idea is that a stock's price will eventually return to its CAPE average.
Financial Times on the usefulness of the CAPE:
Cape ticks many boxes you’d want from a rule-of-thumb: simplicity, comprehensibility, and clarity. Its relationship to long-term returns is statistically significant but for short-term forecasting it is next to useless. And even longer-term forecasting accuracy depends on the future looking like the past. We should celebrate it as a superb starting point for market analysis — one that furnishes market outsiders with probing questions to put to their fund managers. But let’s not overburden it with unrealistic expectations of precision.
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ReplyDeleteBubble-ologist Robert Schiller developed the CAPE [Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio] as a measure of the long-term value of a stock:. The idea is that a stock's price will eventually return to its CAPE average.
Financial Times on the usefulness of the CAPE:
Cape ticks many boxes you’d want from a rule-of-thumb: simplicity, comprehensibility, and clarity. Its relationship to long-term returns is statistically significant but for short-term forecasting it is next to useless. And even longer-term forecasting accuracy depends on the future looking like the past. We should celebrate it as a superb starting point for market analysis — one that furnishes market outsiders with probing questions to put to their fund managers. But let’s not overburden it with unrealistic expectations of precision.