Sunday, July 14, 2024
Ignore the polls, prediction markets have Trump at 66% chance of winning the election
CNN Interview of Rutgers Statistics professor, Harry Crane. Below are graphs of the prices of a Trump, Biden, and Harris futures contracts that pays out $1 if they become President. In the last day, the Trump contract has increased by 6¢, indicating a 6% increase in President Trump's election chances. The blue bars indicate the increase in volume in the betting market.
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