Tuesday, January 31, 2023

2m Baby boomers more likely to stay retired if their house price increases

 

A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that ageing is the main cause: nearly 2m baby-boomers who tried early retirement over the past three years have taken a liking to it and arenot coming back.

UPDATE:  MSAs with stronger house price growth tend to have lower [labor] participation rates, but only for home owners around retirement age — a 65 year old home owner’s unconditional participation rate of 44.8% falls to 43.9% if he experiences a 10% excess house price growth. A counterfactual shows that if housing returns in 2021 would have been equal to 2019 returns, there would have been no decline in the labor force participation of older Americans.

Interpetation: working is unpleasant and if your wealth (measured by house price) increases enough, older workers would rather not.

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