Monday, September 19, 2022

Why is the CFTC trying to shut down contracts (that pay off $1 if an event occurs) are selling at prices that imply the following probabilities:
  • 55% that a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election 
  • 75% that Republicans win the 2022 House majority
  • 65% that Democrats win the 2022 Senate majority
So why are President Biden's appointees at the CFTC trying to shut down  A spokesperson for the CFTC said that the reason “remains confidential within the commission.”  

Washington Post and Chicago Tribune editorials suggest that it is because polls, the alternative to prediction markets, have a liberal bias, and this bias reduces Republican votes.  

PredictIt has sued the CFTC:
Unlike pundits and polls, with their quirky methodologies and unspoken partisan biases, prediction markets are much more transparent and accurate in the information they provide.
See past blog posts using prediction markets.

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