PredictIt.org contracts (that pay off $1 if an event occurs) are selling at prices that imply the following probabilities:
- 55% that a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election
- 75% that Republicans win the 2022 House majority
- 65% that Democrats win the 2022 Senate majority
So why are President Biden's appointees at the CFTC trying to shut down PredictIt.org? A spokesperson for the CFTC said that the reason “remains confidential within the commission.”
PredictIt has sued the CFTC:
Unlike pundits and polls, with their quirky methodologies and unspoken partisan biases, prediction markets are much more transparent and accurate in the information they provide.See past blog posts using prediction markets.