Thursday, February 4, 2021

Ironically, advances in AI increase the value of human judgement

 Written by three economists, Prediction Machines analyzes the potential of AI and as a fall in the cost of prediction.  The top review on Amazon reduced the book to three propositions:

  • AI is mostly about prediction
  • The cost and price of prediction is falling,
  • This will increase demand for complementary skills, like judgement and decision making.
While accurate, the review does not do the book justice.  Most interesting is the taxonomy of the different kinds of uncertainty:  (known, knowns), (unknown, knowns), (known, unknowns),( unknown, unknowns).  From a review:

Building on Donald Rumsfeld’s oft-repeated taxonomy of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, the trio of economists add another category: unknown knowns.[7] For Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb, known knowns represent a sweet spot for artificial intelligence—the data are rich and we are confident in the predictions.[8] In contrast, neither known unknowns nor unknown unknowns are suitable for artificial intelligence. In the former, there are insufficient data to generate a prediction—perhaps the event is too rare, as may often be the case for military planning and deliberations. In the latter, the requirement for a prediction isn’t even specified, a situation described by Taleb’s black swan.[9] In the final case of unknown knowns, the data may be plentiful and we may be confident in the prediction, but the answer can be very wrong due to unrecognized gaps in the data set, such as omitted variables and counterfactuals that can contribute to problems of reverse causality.[10]


This last problem is illustrated by the story of an early AI/Chess program.  After analyzing thousands of chess games played by humans, the program began sacrificing its its Queen after only a couple of moves.  In human games, sacrificing the queen usually lead to checkmate in only a few moves.  This is a classic mistake, confusing correlation (losing your queen often led to victory) with causation (humans only sacrifice a queen only if doing so would lead to checkmate. 

Here is a good summary: .   
Too often in the public discourse, artificial intelligence is portrayed as magical fairy dust that should be applied liberally to our most challenging problems. Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb’s Prediction Machines dismisses this fallacy. Although written for a business audience, its insights are not confined to the boardroom. Prediction Machines provides a compelling, fresh perspective to help us understand what artificial intelligence is and its potential impact on our world. The text is essential reading for those grappling to make sense of the field. 

 For Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb, artificial intelligence is simply a prediction machine—it uses information we possess to generate information we do not possess. This simple realization immediately refocuses contemporary discussions and guides fruitful development of artificial intelligence. It underscores the situation-specific nature of its data and tools. It discloses its fallibility. And it reveals the role of predictions in our decision process, not as determinants but rather as inputs that must be evaluated according to our uniquely-human judgement. According to the three economists, that is the “most significant implication of prediction machines”—they “increase the value of judgement.”[31]

4 comments:

  1. HOW I WAS ABLE TO FLUSH OUT THE HERPES VIRUS WITH THE HELP OF DR. KHAM NATURAL PRODUCT, HIS EMAIL dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com. I was diagnosed with Herpes a year ago. It’s the worst thing that’s ever happened to me and  I feel like my life is over. Living with constant pain is something no one should have to go through, Herpes has also had a huge impact on my sleep . Since being diagnosed I’ve fallen so far into depression I see no way out because I have been to different hospitals. I’m taking a high dose of antidepressants, as well as sedatives and sleeping-pills. I don’t know how I’ll ever accept that this is my life now…I keep asking why me because now changes? But I guess reading your testimony really made me feel happy because i believe what i had from people out there who you also help to cure the herpes virus, and i believe so much with your herbal medicine i am going to be out of this bad situation like others you also help before, what we i have done if not for the herbal medicine that i requested for that was able to flush out the bad virus that was making me go crazy. people out there will thank this man called DR. KHAM, I will advise you to email him directly if you have diseases like herpes etc. dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or whatsapp him +2348159922297, you can also visit his website to know more about him at  https://herbal-dr-kham.jimdosite.com/

    ReplyDelete
  2. To know more about Chief Dr Lucky you can visit his website (https://chiefdrluckyherbaltherapy.wordpress.com/)
     
     A friend that suffered from Herpes and was cure with the help of this great herbal doctor Chief Lucky so i decided to contact him for help in getting rid of my families genital herpes virus 1/2 which i did and all i was told to provide was just some useful information and some materials used in preparation of the natural cure and that i did and now i am the happiest person on earth because i am writing this testimony of mine with joy and happiness in my heart to the whole world to know that natural remedy is real because i am a living testimony of Chief Lucky traditional herbal cure and i want you all to contact Chief Lucky via his email: chiefdrlucky@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2348132777335 am sure he will help you too.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello guys I would wish to share my testimony on how I got my edd funds I have been trying to get my edd done fit the two months i was told to first certify for 3 weeks which I had paid for but my edd card wasn’t delivered to me I changed my mail and called for card replacement and I was told I would get it in the next 10 working days but still nothing not until I was introduced to a company and in the next 8 working days I got my card and also few days later I got my funds
    Website: http://Alphasecuritycorporation.com
    Phone number: +12132951376

    ReplyDelete
  4. I know of a group of private investigators who can help you with they are also hackers but prefer to be called private investigators They can help with your bitcoin issues and your clients will be happy doing business with you,they can also help yo with your bad credit score,hacking into phones,binary recovery,wiping criminal records,increase school score, stolen files in your office or school,blank atm etc. Just name it and you will live a better life
    whatsapp +1 (984) 733-3673
    telegram +1 (984) 733-3673
    Premiumhackservices@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete