Thursday, August 30, 2018

Are weaker property rights behind the fall of the RAND?

In the chart to the right, denoting prices over the past six years, we see a big increase in price of Pounds measured in RAND, indicating an increase in the demand for Pounds (people who want to sell RAND and buy Pounds).  It fell, but it is going up again.  

In general, markets prices give us signals, but they can be hard to interpret.  Here is one interpretation:

In a barrage of headlines that sparked chaos in FX algo markets, The South African government proclaimed proudly that it is opposed to illegal land grabs (sparking a rally in the rand) before humans realized that this is mere statement of fact and that the entire reason for this process is to 'legalize' land grabs through reform.

This interpretation should be familiar to anyone who has read chapter two, which talks about the incentive-aligning effects of property rights, which are behind the rise of modern China and Vietnam. But in South Africa, it looks as if they are being eroded.

Here is another interpretation:

LONDON, Aug 30 — Emerging currencies sold off sharply again today after Argentina’s peso suffered its biggest one-day decline since 2015 overnight, with Turkey’s lira, the South African rand and the Indian rupee all feeling the heat.

1 comment:

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