Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Earth Day Question: Will the world run out of resources?

Only if you ask an ecologist.
"We are using 50% more resources than the Earth can sustainably produce, and unless we change course, that number will grow fast—by 2030, even two planets will not be enough," says Jim Leape, director general of the World Wide Fund for Nature International (formerly the World Wildlife Fund).
To get the right answer, ask an economist.  They will point out that when a good gets scarce, its price increases, which gives consumers an incentive to conserve or find substitutes, and producers an incentive to find more of it.
But thanks to fracking and the shale revolution, ... [we will find] cheap substitutes for fossil fuels long before they run out.
BOTTOM LINE:  Ecologists could have improved their predictions by studying a little economics.  As a resource becomes scarce due to a decrease in supply, its price goes up which causes two longer run adjustments:  (i) consumers substitute away from the higher priced resource; and (ii) producers find more of it.  

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