The axiomatic or "simple" view of bargaining suggests that the alternatives to agreement determine the terms of agreement. For the following reasons, players have a lot more to lose than owners:
First, the owners are losing net revenues, the players their gross revenues.
Second and most important, owners are sacrificing SR (short run) net revenues for LR (long run) increases in franchise values from cost control. Players have no LR gains to motivate SR pain.
Owners have a LR view, players SR, so it makes much less sense for players to take a SR hit without a big offsetting gain.For these reasons, one would predict that the owners would capture a bigger share of the gains from trade.