Friday, August 1, 2025

Fixed - Mobile Substitution ... for Internet Service

A generation ago, a middling economist started a series of projects that found that mobile phone service would substitute for landline telephone service (here, here, and here). In talks, I would caution that this trend of "cutting the cord" would not bode well for traditional telephony. Incredible as it seems now, at the time, many critics thought I was nuts. I think I may be vindicated by the fact that globally there now are about ten times as many mobile subscribers as fixed line subscribers. Connecting almost all of humanity through mobile phones, and usually smartphones, is one of the under appreciated triumphs of modern technology.

But how about for Internet service? More than 99.9% of bandwidth is used for data and not voice telephony. Indeed, calling them mobile "phones" seems nearly archaic. Most US residential Internet access has been through home WiFi modems connected to high-speed fixed lines to homes. Most homes are passed by only two wires, usually from the CATV and phone companies. With only two competitors, US prices for Internet service have remained significantly higher than in most comparable countries. However, the increased speed of 5G technology makes Internet access from your mobile carrier a viable alternative. The WSJ reports that these carriers' fixed-wireless services have been gaining ground against traditional Internet providers. Competition from 5G entry has increasingly enabled Internet consumers to cut the cord. And wire based services are responding with significant price cuts.