Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Surest sign yet that Greek debt holders will take a "haircut"

Normally, longer term bonds trade a higher interest rates than shorter term bonds because the investors must be compensated for bearing the extra risk.  But the so called "yield curve" for Greek debt is inverted. From Calculated Risk:
The yield on Greece ten year bonds jumped to 14.5% today and the two year yield is now up to 20.3%. The curve is inverted because investors expect to wake up one morning and own longer maturity debt at lower rates. This possibility hits the price of the 2 year bond more than the 10 year.

In other words, the two year interest rates are above the ten year rates because investors have to be compensated for bearing the bigger risk of a haircut on the two year notes.

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