Is NY City the canary in the recession coal mine?

 From NY Times:

Three years into the pandemic, floors of office buildings throughout Manhattan have been emptied by tenants who have shrunk their footprint and employees who work from home.

Now, there is another problem.

Rapidly rising interest rates have intensified concerns that the New York City office market, the largest in the country and a pillar of the city’s economy, could be at grave risk. That one-two punch could be worse than anything corporate landlords have experienced before, experts on the sector say, leading major banks and real estate analysts in recent weeks to warn that languishing properties along with falling property values and higher borrowing costs could increase the odds of a recession nationally and a budget crisis for the city.  ...

Office workers in the city make about 75 percent more in annual salaries than the rest of the private sector, according to the Office of the State Comptroller, and their absence from the office every day deprives a host of businesses of their spending.