Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Correlation is not causation: birth weight determines mortality, not the animus of white physicians

Economist

CORRELATION: “when Black newborns are cared for by Black physicians, the mortality penalty they suffer, as compared with White infants, is halved.” 

MISTAKENLY INFERRING CAUSALITY FROM CORRELATION:
This striking finding quickly captured national and international headlines, and generated nearly 700 Google Scholar citations. The study was widely interpreted—incorrectly, say the authors—as evidence that newborns should be matched to doctors of the same race, or that white doctors harboured racial animus against black babies. It even made it into the Supreme Court’s records as an argument in favour of affirmative action, with Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (mis)citing the findings. A supporting brief by the Association of American Medical Colleges and 45 other organisations mentioned the study as evidence that “For high-risk black newborns, having a black physician is tantamount to a miracle drug.”

CAUSALITY:  birth weight determines mortality, not the animus of white physicians

...a disproportionately high share of underweight black babies were treated by white doctors, while a disproportionately high share of healthy-weight black babies were treated by black doctors.
IRONY:
That a flawed social-science finding which fitted neatly within the zeitgeist was widely accepted is understandable. Less understandable is that few people now seem eager to correct the record. The new study has had just one Google Scholar citation and no mainstream news coverage. 

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