Another gem from Steven Pinker's Rationality
Regression to the mean is an unintuitive yet pervasive phenomenon and is among the tools of rationality that should become second nature to educated people.
Imagine that the outcome of some activity has a random component, and that criticism or praise follows unusually good or bad outcomes. Due to regression to the mean, unusually good or bad outcomes will both tend toward average, or tend to "disappear" next period.
So it will appear that:
- criticism causes the unusually bad behavior to stop,
- praise does not cause the unusually good behavior to continue.
It is exciting, then humbling, to read Pinker as he explains these ideas so clearly. Then I realize how poorly I have been teaching them by comparison.
BUY THIS BOOK!!!
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