Sunday, January 24, 2021

Are Stocks over-valued?

Earlier we noted that Shiller's CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) is the second-highest its ever been  behind only the tech bubble of 1999.  And now Goldman is telling its clients that there are other signals that the market may be over-valued, e.g., the growth of SPAC's, and the big increase in prices of stocks with negative earnings, indicating an expectation of future growth.  

Nevertheless, Goldman seems to think those expectations are right:

"we expect modestly higher rates will be offset by a declining equity risk premium, leaving the S&P 500 P/E effectively unchanged and allowing strong EPS growth to drive the market towards our year-end target of 4300."

CAVEAT:  If I really knew, I wouldn't be teaching school.  

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