What is the effect of subsidizing the "American dream" to own a home? At least some data comes from an analysis of the experience in Denmark:
First, the mortgage deduction has a precisely estimated zero effect on homeownership. This holds even in the very long run. Second, the mortgage deduction has a sizeable impact on housing demand at the intensive margin, inducing homeowners to buy larger and more expensive houses. Third, the largest effect of the mortgage deduction is on household financial decisions, inducing them to increase indebtedness.
This continues the theme from the previous post that finds college tuition subsidies likewise don't increase the "desired" activity, but do significantly distort the market.
A similar situation unfolds every year in the farming communities. When farmers realize that they will be profitable after harvest, they rush to spend money in any way they can. They will start with the necessary inputs for the next year, but if money is still left over they will spend it on assets they may or may not need that they can then depreciate on their tax returns. Many farmers are still fighting the effects of bad capital investments from the years 2008 through 2014 and the recent agricultural economic downturn is causing a large financial burden on them.
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