Armistice Day: The Challenge of Making Peace Last

On November 11, 1918, the guns fell silent on the Western Front, ending more than four years of devastating warfare. Today, many will wear a poppy to commemorate the fallen in “Flanders Field.” The armistice was more than a promise to stop fighting. Germany was required to surrender substantial quantities of weapons, withdraw from occupied territories, and accept Allied occupation of the Rhineland. These conditions were intended to prevent Germany from resuming hostilities. The Allies understood that ending a war required more than an agreement: it required making the agreement credible.

More than a century later, the same problem complicates efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Peace negotiations held this week have focused partly on security guarantees that might prevent renewed fighting. Even when both sides would benefit from ending a costly conflict, an agreement may fail if either fears that the other will violate it when circumstances change. It requires credible commitment. In business, contracts, collateral, and other commitments can make agreements more credible. In international relations, the stakes are immeasurably higher, and enforcement is much more difficult. At the very start of this war, a brave woman offered a Russian solder sunflower seeds “so at least sunflowers will grow when you all lie down here.” Perhaps, in coming times, sunflowers will replace poppies to become the symbol of the end of a war.