Saturday, March 7, 2026

What happens if we raise our capital gains tax?

Senate Democrats want to raise the top federal capital gains tax rate to 35.8% — which, combined with state taxes, would hit nearly 50% for investors in California or Maryland. That would be the highest rate since 1978. For comparison:
  • China has a 20% rate. 
  • The European average capital gains tax is 17.9%.
The higher rate will have two effects: 
  • Less investment: A higher tax on the returns to investment means that fewer US investments would have a positive NPV.
  • Lock-in: since the tax only triggers when assets are sold, investors would hold appreciated assets longer than they should, freezing capital in old uses instead of letting it flow to better ones. 
BOTTOM LINE: Investment and the resulting growth double our standard of living every 40 years.  This tax would change that.    

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