Monday, October 2, 2023

Should the FTC go after Financial Advisors who fool their clients by randomness?

In the past, we have talked about the effectiveness of testimonial ads that mention a number, e.g., "I lost 74 pounds wearing slimming insoles" and the ineffectiveness of the "results not typical" disclaimer required by the FTC.  

In Nicholas Taleb's, Fooled by Randomness, he exposes the Finance Industry's exploitation of clients' ignorance of statistics principles like "regression to the mean," and "survivorship bias" to take advantage of them.  

For example, Taleb shows how financial advisors can invest in a large number of portfolios, then show clients only the ones that have beaten the market, to fool them into attributing the outcome to skill, rather than selection bias.

I have never seen the old FTC disclaimer on Financial Advice, nor the 2009 updated requirements that testimonial ads give consumers information about their expected results.

Taleb on how to avoid being duped:  never go with a financial advisor who approaches you; instead approach one yourself and anticipate selection bias.  

NOTE: Vanderbilt uses testimonials that mention a number to advertise my managerial economics class--but without the required FTC disclaimer and info:

In the initial immersion week of classes, a Luke Froeb-led lecture and discussion touched on a project at work and changed his decision making process. When he returned to the office, he changed course on how he was putting a bid proposal together. The revised bid added $400,000 to the bottom line, far more than the investment Vulcan was making in his Executive MBA degree. ... After just one class, Vulcan’s MBA investment was in the black,” he recalls with a chuckle.

To avoid getting into trouble with my former employer, here is the old FTC dislaimer and newer explanation of what you can expect.

=====RESULTS NOT TYPICAL=====

In other words, if you take my class, some of you will not earn $400,000 for your companies after just one class. Rather, education is like everything else: the more you put into it, the more you get out of it.

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