...the U.S.’s leading position in academic research, and the close links of universities and business, gave the country a head start in computerization in the 1970s and early 1980s, in the internet in the 1990s and in newer internet applications and artificial intelligence more recently.
Each innovation sparked a wave of investment to take advantage of it. This improved profitability and attracted foreign capital—pushing up the dollar. <Note, USD is the price of a dollar measured in foreign currencies>
Then...
Inventions don’t stay in one country for long. But in each case America’s head start gave it a few years’ lead before investments elsewhere looked as profitable.
Which lead to capital outflows and more consumption (imports), pushing down the USD, causing the cycle.
WARNING: This kind of after-the-fact theorizing is good for developing theories, but is not a substitute for testing them, i.e., correlation does not imply causality.
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ReplyDelete...the U.S.’s leading position in academic research, and the close links of universities and business, gave the country a head start in computerization in the 1970s and early 1980s, in the internet in the 1990s and in newer internet applications and artificial intelligence more recently.
Each innovation sparked a wave of investment to take advantage of it. This improved profitability and attracted foreign capital—pushing up the dollar.
Then...
Inventions don’t stay in one country for long. But in each case America’s head start gave it a few years’ lead before investments elsewhere looked as profitable.
Which lead to capital outflows and more consumption (imports), pushing down the USD, causing the cycle.
WARNING: This kind of after-the-fact theorizing is good for developing theories, but is not a substitute for testing them, i.e., correlation does not imply causality