Thursday, July 18, 2019

What's the best way to provide opportunity?

Good profile of economist Raj Chetty who finds that housing vouchers which allow poor families to move to "opportunity" neighborhoods, help younger kids catch up to richer peers.  President Trump signed a bill that uses the research to guide policy:

Tenants have just started moving, but the program is already successful: The majority of families who received assistance moved to high-opportunity areas, compared with one-fifth for the control group, which was not provided with the extra services. Chetty estimates that the program will increase each child’s lifetime earnings by $88,000. In February, President Donald Trump signed into law a bill that provides $28 million to try similar experimental programs in other locations. 

However, Chetty still doesn't know what makes neighborhoods better:

For example, the strongest correlation is the number of intact families. The explanation seems obvious: A second parent usually means higher family income as well as more stability, a broader social network, additional emotional support, and many other intangibles. Yet children’s upward mobility was strongly correlated with two-parent families only in the neighborhood, not necessarily in their home. There are so many things the data might be trying to say. Maybe fathers in a neighborhood serve as mentors and role models? Or maybe there is no causal connection at all. Perhaps, for example, places with strong church communities help kids while also fostering strong marriages. The same kinds of questions flow from every correlation; each one may mean many things. What is cause, what is effect, and what are we missing? 

HT:  MarginalRevolution.com 

Monday, July 15, 2019

Competition among states for businesses

In the 1980's, when I began teaching, little or no attention was paid to customers (students).  That changed with the national rankings of colleges.  The rankings drove demand, which began a competition, especially among private business schools, to rise in the rankings.

Now a similar ranking of the best states in which to start a business may start a similar competition, like the "bidding" for a new Amazon Headquarters.  Here are the losers and winners:
The results are hardly surprising: High-tax, Democrat-controlled states in the northeast offer some of the worst conditions for businesses, while low-tax states, Republican-controlled states in the Sun Belt have some of the best conditions.

Friday, July 12, 2019

Does decreasing Type II errors leads to more Type I errors?

TYPE I ERROR:  False prosecution
TYPE II ERROR:  False non-prosecution

Until 2011, Title IX (the law that prohibits sex discrimination at federally funded schools) was rarely enforced because of a strict standard of proof. That changed under President Obama.  With lower standards of proof and evidence rules that favored prosecution, we should see Type II errors fall, but with a corresponding increase in Type I errors.
Defamation claims are the new legal tool for men to clear their name and get their accuser to drop sexual assault complaints, according to legal experts. The defamation cases usually end in settlements.

“Over the last three and half years, there’s been far more legal action brought by men charged by the institution with a sexual assault violation,” said Saunie Schuster, a lawyer who advises a range of colleges and co-founded the Association of Title IX Administrators. “The trend was for them to file an action against the institution for due process, but along the way, we started seeing them not just going to file action against the institution, but also civil actions against the victims.”

It is really hard to tell whether Type I or Type II errors changed by court filings, as the selection of cases for trial is not random.  In cases like this, the only recourse is to theory, like that taught in statistics class, showing that reducing one type of error causes an increase in the other.

Complements

Snack sales jump in states where weed is legal

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Do incentives imply inequality?

To engage students, I sometimes ask "who thinks income inequality is a good idea?" When no one raises their hands, I follow up with "who thinks incentive pay is a good idea?" Almost everyone raises their hands. Then I ask "who thinks incentive pay leads to inequality?" At this point, debate turns passionate, and my only role is to ensure that it stays civil.

I spent the morning searching for an old Economist article on this topic, and came up with these citations:



AMERICANS do not go in for envy. The gap between rich and poor is bigger than in any other advanced country, but most people are unconcerned. Whereas Europeans fret about the way the economic pie is divided, Americans want to join the rich, not soak them. Eight out of ten, more than anywhere else, believe that though you may start poor, if you work hard, you can make pots of money. It is a central part of the American Dream.

The political consensus, therefore, has sought to pursue economic growth rather than the redistribution of income, in keeping with John Kennedy's adage that “a rising tide lifts all boats.” The tide has been rising fast recently. Thanks to a jump in productivity growth after 1995, America's economy has outpaced other rich countries' for a decade. Its workers now produce over 30% more each hour they work than ten years ago. In the late 1990s everybody shared in this boom. Though incomes were rising fastest at the top, all workers' wages far outpaced inflation.


Other rich countries are watching America's experience closely. For many Europeans, America's brand of capitalism is already far too unequal. Such sceptics will be sure to make much of any sign that the broad middle-class reaps scant benefit from the current productivity boom, setting back the course of European reform even further.


Views of income inequality are divisive. Leftists blame uneven distribution on outside factors, such as poor education and corporate misconduct. Conservatives, meanwhile, tend to view these differences as a fair consequence of an individual’s choices and abilities. These beliefs have little to do with personal wealth: Mr Tuschman cites a California survey in which the poorest respondents were the most likely to say people get what they deserve, and were also the most religious. Yet he fails to explain properly why this might be.



Elsewhere, there is often great reluctance to believe that people are—or should be—motivated much by money. “Britain”, says Hermes's Mr Ross Goobey, “is a smaller, more enclosed society than America, and people still work for position, status, to be part of the great and the good.” Countries, like companies, will remain free to engineer greater or lesser degrees of equality. But there will be a price—as Sweden is discovering, and as Germany has already noticed. As the market for top talent grows more international, so it may force greater tolerance for inequality on countries that have spent half a century trying to root it out.


A second reason Americans may differ in their view of inequality is that they seem not to trust the government to fix the problem—or to believe that this is part of its job. The researchers from Dalhousie University suggest that American respondents tend to be more sceptical about the role played by government in reducing inequality. And when Jan Zilinsky at the University of Chicago randomly exposed a sample of Americans to information about inequality in America, it made them depressed about the issue but no more likely to support cash transfers to the poor. Most Americans may dislike a tax bill that increases inequality. But that does not mean they would support one that did the opposite.


Look around the world and the supremacy of “the American model” might seem assured. No other rich country has so successfully harnessed the modern juggernauts of technology and globalisation. The hallmarks of American capitalism—a willingness to take risks, a light regulatory touch and sharp competition—have spawned enormous wealth. “This economy is powerful, productive and prosperous,” George Bush boasted recently, and by many yardsticks he is right. Growth is fast, unemployment is low and profits are fat. It is hardly surprising that so many other governments are trying to “Americanise” their economies—whether through the European Union's Lisbon Agenda or Japan's Koizumi reforms.

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Is a Universal Basic Income a good idea?

WSJ editorial arguing for an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) rather than a Universal Basic Income (UBI). Rather than giving everyone $1,000 per month (this would cost so much in taxes that it would destroy jobs), a guaranteed-income program would offer transfers only to individuals whose monthly income falls below $1,000, thereby coming in at a mere fraction of a UBI’s cost.  By providing "insurance" (when your income falls) as well as "opportunity" (jobs), the EITC seems much better than the UBI.

In the US, the top policy goals should be universal health care, more generous unemployment benefits, better-designed retraining programs, and an expanded earned income tax credit (EITC). The EITC already functions like a guaranteed basic income for low-wage workers, costs far less than a UBI, and directly encourages work. On the business side, reducing the indirect costs and payroll taxes that employers pay for hiring workers would spur job creation, also at a pittance of the cost of a UBI.


Note that economists always evaluate policies like the Universal Basic Income relative to its next best alternative. If the alternative is better, we say that the opportunity cost of the UBI is bigger than its benefits.

Monday, July 1, 2019

Algorithmic Gender Bias?

Last week I got to attend the always enlightening annual ZEW ICT Economics Conference. One of the Keynotes was from the always insightful, Catherine Tucker. In one part of her talk she related that her team conducted an experiment to place a generic ad for a STEM educational program on social media only to find out it was shown much more often to men/boys than women/girls. Algorithmic bias, right!?

Digging a little deeper, they discovered that their bid lost out on the ad auction for females more often because others would bid higher. Ads are placed based on the results of real time auctions for "eyeballs." It turns out that men are cheap (pun intended). That is, women control so much more discretionary spending that they are more heavily courted by advertisers with higher auction bids. The STEM ad bid was the same for men and women and so lost out more often when it had to compete with stronger bids for female "eyeballs."

Thwarting neo-Nazis by Denying them Beer

The BBC posted a story a week ago "Beer ban leaves German neo-Nazi rock fans thirsty." Right-wingers descend on this town for a 'music' festival that the local courts have deemed something more.
The Dresden court justified its ban on alcohol at the festival by saying "the event has an obviously martial and aggressive character", and there was a risk that alcohol could make violence more likely.

Townsfolk worried that the attendees would simply purchase from the local grocery stores and so bought more than 200 crates of beer in the town's supermarkets. Festival attendance fell by half. That is changing the game to obtain more desirable results.

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Will Lyft and Uber drivers ever make money?

Today, they make about $15/hour, before costs of about $8/hour (NY Times).  But this $7/hour real wages won't increase, unless drivers figure out a way to stop entry into the profession.  Even if they convinced ride-share companies to raise the prices paid to drivers, the nominal ride prices would attract entry which would reduce the number of rides that each driver picked up. 

And so it is with ride-share drivers today. Another study, by a New York University professor and two Uber employees, found the same dynamic: Higher prices increased driver incomes, but only for a few weeks.
As new drivers entered the market, attracted by higher wages, the average driver had to spend more time waiting for fares. Average pay returned to the level economists refer to as “the outside option” — the pay level of whatever else the drivers could be doing if they weren’t driving for Uber or Lyft.
Similar thing happened in the California Gold Rush

In 1848, for example, at the start of the California gold rush, the first miners made about $20 per day, on average. The historical data shows that was at least 10 times more than the wage for workers doing what I would classify as similar activities — stone cutting and brick laying — in New York at that time.
Over the next eight years, so many people moved to California searching for gold that miners’ average earnings fell to $3 a day, minus expenses — barely more than they could have made if they had been cutting stones in New York.
What killed the gold rush wasn’t the lack of gold — production tripled over that time. It was the entry of so many competing miners that drove average earnings down so low that most of them barely made enough to stay in business
HT:  MarginalRevolution.com